4Q22 Manhattan Market Report | Normalization

NYC remains true and continues to rise out of the pandemic ashes.

While activity was somewhat muted due in part to rising mortgage rates causing those with existing mortgages to stay put, and those looking for new mortgages to take a breather, liquidity persisted and inventory remained low. Market activity was also dampened due to the lingering uncertainty with Ukraine and the unknown depth of the Fed’s intentional slowdown. While supply has grown since coming off of very tight levels in the beginning of the year, inventory in Manhattan remains fairly balanced overall. Condominium inventory remained slightly more elevated than co-op inventory due in part to the strength of the US dollar relative to the Euro and other currencies.

• Overall supply 5.7 months (technical seller’s market as balanced is 6-7); Condos 6.3, Co-ops 5.1

• Average discount to last asking price: 5.9%; average days on market: 76

• Approximately 50% of Manhattan purchases are cash; personal wealth has the advantage when ‘other people’s money’ is expensive

• Sales were down 25% YOY; the outlier was $10M-20M sales (up 22%)

As has been said, the obituary of NYC has been written many times: we remain true and continue to rise out of the pandemic ashes. While crime is still too high and dirt is still too ubiquitous, Manhattan continues on a positive trajectory. As baby boomers continue to become empty nesters and value access to activities and healthcare, and currencies continue their rebalancing, we predict demand will increase in 2023. Whether or not supply keeps up is the unanswered question: time will tell.

Reach out to us with questions or if you need help with selling or buying real estate in New York City or anywhere across the world; we have a global network of real estate partners.

Happy New Year! All the best for 2023 from the Julia Hoagland Team.

Sources: COMPASS, Brown Harris Stevens, Urban Digs, Douglas Elliman Market Report, CB Warburg