3Q21 Manhattan Market Report | Race to the Top

Aside from 2020, the third quarter brought more new listings than any Q3 in 14 years. Normally this would benefit buyers; however, signed contracts shattered 30-year records, shifting leverage to sellers. Pent-up demand, returning workers and residents, increased vaccinations, interest rates on the eve of increase and fears of inflation inspiring interest in tangible assets all drove activity. These competitive, high-velocity markets are ideal for maximizing value for sellers: the blind “best and highest” Manhattan bidding processes can produce remarkable sales prices. 

The luxury market also impressed, with the first three quarters logging $4M+ signed contracts more than twice the total for 2020 and 42% more than 2019. Sales volume in the first nine months was more than in any full year since 2014. This with the majority of office workers still not back full-time and the international market still largely absent: watch for these demand drivers in 4Q21/2022. 

• Median price rose 10% YOY while the average price fell 12%: robust sub-$5M activity combined with increasing levels of higher-priced sales

• Inventory solidly in seller’s market territory at just 4.7 months of supply: it was 3X higher in September 2020

• Resale prices increased 17% (co-ops) and 15% (condos) YOY: highest since 2Q19

• Midtown East 3+BD condos have 18.6 months’ supply: the most of any submarket and one of only four segments with double-digit absorption rates

Sellers have a technical advantage. However, opportunity still exists for buyers as prices are still below the peak, money is cheap, and certain submarkets flush with inventory are ripe for negotiation. 

Sources: Brown Harris Stevens, Compass, Corcoran, Douglas Elliman, Olshan, Urban Digs, Warburg