Pivoting in Times of Low Inventory - Q&A with Julia Hoagland
Comment on the inventory trends you see in your market and wider geographic region:
Similar to most urban environments, NYC had a dismal 2020. That said, in 2021 more contracts were signed than there have been in more than 30 years. This is the biggest whipsaw I have seen in NYC in my 17 years in the business.
Inventory has been in sellers’ market territory across Manhattan for nearly a year in most markets. The exception is Midtown, because people have not entirely transitioned back to working in their offices, as well as the international community still not fully returned.
Inventory is now growing, and we are watching closely to see whether this is the result of a normal spring market growth or a shift in overall market conditions.
Can you elaborate on success strategies for getting listings when there are fewer to be had:
My recommendation is to look within your own network. Agents try hard to build new relationships, but the truth is that we often have a deep network of existing relationships that we may not be paying enough attention to. In my team we are starting to intentionally embrace our existing relationships by doing a deep-dive into our CRM content and engagement.
From an operational perspective the questions we ask ourselves are: is your CRM organized so as to maximize touch points with your prospects and clients? Do you have a systematic, methodical and efficient outreach strategy? Do you know the average time to sell in your market and do you touch base with your clients at the right time - whether that’s one month or several years from now?
Can you elaborate on success strategies for closing sales when the competition is fierce?
Our approach is to think in a vacuum. We never know what’s going on on the other side of the transaction. What’s most important is that the deal works for our client. In other words, will they be happy tomorrow with the choices they make today? Don’t underestimate the value of a relationship with a co-broker which will make the listing agent’s life easier and could ensure the deal actually closes.
Get on the phone with your co-broker and ask what’s important to the other side, try and unearth leverage for your clients in every creative way possible. Talk to their bank, their attorney (if an attorney state) and their inspector: ensure the entire team is ready to go and communicate this to the other side.
Can you give us your thoughts on where the market is headed into 2022 and beyond?
The economic impact of rising rates will likely have more effect on the market than the rates themselves. Interest rates are still 30%+ below where they were in the heated (not slow) market leading up to the financial crisis. Additionally, 50% of Manhattan deals are all cash.
Tangible assets like real estate are inflation hedges, so that’s a tailwind. We still don’t have full participation of the international community so that’s another tailwind. Crime in NYC needs to be controlled and I am optimistic about our new mayor and his focus on resolving this issue.
My prediction is that our market will be flattish for the next 12-24 months.
The above market insights were adapted from Julia’s answers to a panel in Laguna Niguel “Pivoting in Times of Low Inventory” organized by Luxury Real Estate.